McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues of US$6.9b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$3.13, missing estimates by 2.1%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for McDonald’s
Following the latest results, McDonald’s’ 31 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$27.0b in 2025. This would be a credible 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.9% to US$12.65. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.65 in 2025. So it’s pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there’s been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$322, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic McDonald’s analyst has a price target of US$360 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$280. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting McDonald’s is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that McDonald’s’ revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that McDonald’s is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that McDonald’s’ revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$322, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for McDonald’s going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don’t forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we’ve identified 2 warning signs for McDonald’s that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
link