As the 5 November US presidential election approaches, Donald Trump has edged ahead of vice president Kamala Harris in some polls. This surge has caught the attention of crypto investors, who believe a Trump victory could lead to a rally in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other digital assets.
With two weeks to go until the US election, Trump has extended his lead over Harris in both traditional polling and blockchain-based betting markets such as Polymarket. On Polymarket, Trump currently holds a 60.3% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 39.6%. However, it’s important to note that Polymarket users tend to be more crypto-friendly and may favour Trump.
Traditional polls indicate a tighter race, especially in key swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
While both candidates are viewed as broadly favourable toward crypto, Trump has taken a more clear and active stance. This year, he attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference and publicly endorsed crypto project World Liberty Financial.
Harris has offered little clarity on her approach to crypto regulation, leaving uncertainty about her position on the industry.
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In a recent University of Michigan Ross School of Business and Financial Times poll, 44% of voters trust Trump to manage the economy compared to 43% for Harris, marking the first time Trump has led on this issue in the FT-Michigan Ross poll. When asked which candidate would leave them better off financially, 45% of voters supported Trump compared to 37% for Harris.
Bitcoin was trading at around $66,900 on Thursday, according to CoinGecko data. The broader cryptocurrency market saw a slight downturn, with the total market cap falling 0.3% to $2.4tn.
Bitwise head of alpha strategies Jeff Park recently forecast that bitcoin could rally as high as $92,000 if Trump secures the presidency. In an X.com post on Tuesday, Park analysed bitcoin’s current price and Trump’s odds on Polymarket using “merger arb-style probability math” to estimate a significant surge in bitcoin’s value.
Park’s forecast adds to a growing chorus of analysts who expect a Trump victory could fuel the next crypto bull run. A Trump administration would likely be a more favourable regulatory environment for digital assets, creating optimism among crypto traders and investors.
QCP Capital analysts believe that a Trump victory, combined with a strong US labour market and the prospect of rate cuts, could further support bitcoin’s price rise.
“Trump has started to extend his lead over Kamala in betting markets, and key swing states are now polling Republican. Markets are now pricing in a potential Trump presidency. Talks of increased tariffs and tax reductions are causing the USD to rally and US bond yields to head higher. Given Trump’s more crypto-friendly stance, it’s no surprise that bitcoin is trading higher as well,” QCP Capital analysts said in a report on Wednesday.
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The analysts added that all eyes are on upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday, which is set to play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. With the potential for both positive economic data and a pro-crypto administration, QCP Capital added that bitcoin is well-positioned for further gains.
Tesla’s (TSLA) commitment to holding its bitcoin reserves may have reinforced investor confidence in the crypto market. In its Q3 earnings report, Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company disclosed that it has not sold any of its bitcoin holdings for the fifth consecutive quarter, despite recently transferring its 11,509 bitcoins to new digital wallets.
In mid-October, Tesla moved its entire bitcoin stash — worth roughly $770m (£594m) — to new wallets after two years of inactivity. The transfer did not involve sending bitcoin to exchanges, prompting speculation that a sale was not imminent. Some analysts believe the move may have been a routine wallet reorganisation or potentially securing a loan against the holdings.
Tesla has held bitcoin since 2021, and although it briefly accepted the cryptocurrency as a payment option, the company has since focused on holding the asset rather than transacting with it.
In its earnings report this week, Tesla posted $25.2bn in revenue and $2.7bn in profits, driven by record vehicle deliveries and a 52% surge in energy storage sales.
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals also point to a potential price rally. Recent data from CryptoQuant shows that bitcoin’s mining hashrate has reached an all-time high, indicating heightened mining competition and increased difficulty.
This trend suggests that bitcoin’s intrinsic value is rising, making it more attractive to institutional investors and hedge funds.
“Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are exhibiting patterns similar to those observed during previous bullish periods. Even if a correction or consolidation phase occurs in the near future, there is a strong likelihood of a positive trend emerging,” CryptoQuant Community analyst Yonsei Dent said.
The number of active bitcoin addresses has risen since mid-September. On-chain transactions have also increased, contributing to higher total fees on the network. Historically, these network patterns have been observed during previous bullish periods, signaling that a sustained price rally could be on the horizon.
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