As you might know, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LPLA) recently reported its yearly numbers. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$12b and statutory earnings per share of US$14.03 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that LPL Financial Holdings is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for LPL Financial Holdings
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering LPL Financial Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$15.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 20% to US$16.96. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$14.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$16.73 in 2025. There doesn’t appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.
Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$407, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic LPL Financial Holdings analyst has a price target of US$450 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$320. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It’s clear from the latest estimates that LPL Financial Holdings’ rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect LPL Financial Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.
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