While 2025 may now be behind us, the new edition of the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI), which was released this week, provides some great perspective on how the year ended up, as well as the factors driving logistics output, at a time when logistics activity remains front and center—a feeling that has become, for better or worse, normalized going back to the early days of the pandemic almost six years ago.
The monthly LMI is a joint project among researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, and also receives support by Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP). CSCMP. The LMI is written by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.
The report’s authors explained that the LMI score, or reading, is based on eight “unique components” within the logistics sector, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization and prices and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices.
The December LMI reading, at 54.2 (a reading above 50 indicates growth is occurring), falling 1.5% from November’s 55.7 reading, representing the lowest rate of LMI expansion going back to April 2024. This marks the 10th consecutive month that the LMI has trailed the all-time high 61.4 reading
The report’s authors explained that December’s results could portend signs of a slowdown, something that is not atypical at the end of the year.
“The slowest part of the LMI is in Inventory and Warehousing,” said Dr. Dale Rogers. “We do usually see bleeding down in inventories during December, and we are not certain how much of the slowing is just because of seasonality or if there are other factors at play, including waiting out to hear if the U.S. Supreme Court will rule that the Trump tariffs are illegal. We may see the answer sometime in January.”
Looking at some key metrics, the LMI found that the December Inventory Levels reading saw a steep decline, falling 17.4%, into “extreme contraction,” to 35.1, with Inventory Costs down 8.1%, to 62.9, while still expanding. On the warehousing side, Warehousing Capacity headed up 6.4%, to 61.2, with Warehousing Utilization again seeing a second-consecutive all-time low reading, down 4.7%, to 42.9.
The report observed that these declines reflect how shippers are still moving inventories downstream to consumers, in turn, “providing a final wave of relief to firms that had been holding onto unprecedented levels of inventory throughout 2025.”
And that was also reflected in December’s transportation readings, with Transportation Capacity down 13.1%, to 36.9, which the report said is something carriers have been in need of over the last three years. And that capacity contraction subsequently modestly drove up Transportation Prices 1.8% to 66.7, the highest reading going back to January 2025, coupled with what LMI called the initial pull-forward that kicked off 2025. Which was also seen at various points throughout the year, due to the ongoing stop-and-start nature of tariff policy and implementation dates, as well as shipper’s pull-forward, or front-loading, of U.S.-bound cargo to get their goods in ahead of when new tariff rates took effect.
As has been previously noted in this space, the LMI, as always, does an excellent job of putting market conditions into perspective, not just for shippers, but, really, for all industry stakeholders. There are more than a few moving parts, impacting key areas of logistics and supply chain operations, to be sure. While trade and tariffs are still clearly at the top of the list, everything the report covers, measures, and addresses, needs a watchful eye—now more than ever.
That is especially true now, with a Supreme Court decision on the legality of the White House’s IEEPA tariffs coming perhaps as soon as tomorrow, as well as the ongoing mixed economic signals and uncertainty that logistics stakeholders continue to navigate.
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