Some armchair investors would like to see former President Donald Trump steering the economy. Others prefer President Joe Biden.
But if there’s one thing all investors eschew, it’s uncertainty. And nothing says uncertainty quite like the 2024 election.
Betterment, a financial advisory company, recently surveyed 1,200 investors, asking what word best conveyed their feelings about the upcoming election. The most popular response: “Anxious.”
Another survey, from the asset management firm Janus Henderson, found 78% of affluent investors voicing concern about the election. A third poll, from the Nationwide Retirement Institute, found 76% of investors on edge.
Election anxiety weighs heavy on American investors. You want uncertainty? Many in the president’s own party are calling on him to exit the race. The other party’s presumptive nominee is running as a convicted felon.
“My clients aren’t generally jittery in an election year. This election they are very jittery about,” said Elizabeth Windisch, a certified financial planner in Denver. “They’re worried about instability, things that could go wrong. Nobody’s making any big investments right now.”
Elections sow uncertainty: Markets hate that
Election angst seems to be perennial. Ameriprise Financial surveyed 269 financial advisers this spring and found that 83% agreed with this statement: “During presidential election years, I notice an increase in my clients’ overall stress levels related to their financial portfolios.”
An old Wall Street saying instructs, “Markets hate uncertainty.”
Yet, actual stock market returns suggest election-year fears are mostly unfounded.
Between 1937 and 2022, Janus Henderson reports, the S&P 500 posted an average return of 12.5% in nonelection years. In election years, it gained 9.9%.
“We have all of these charts that go back to stock market performance post-election, and it really doesn’t matter who wins,” said Catherine Valega, a certified financial planner in Boston.
So far this year, the market seems to be doing just fine. The S&P is up roughly 15%. The Nasdaq is up about 20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a more modest 4%.
The presidential debate: a quintessential moment of uncertainty
Yet, last week’s presidential debate delivered a quintessential moment of uncertainty, at least for Democrats, who, by broad consensus, watched their candidate show every one of his 81 years.
Uncertainty tends to push investors out of the market. In the Betterment survey, half of Republican investors said they would likely move or withdraw funds if Biden wins. Half of Democrats said they would do the same if Trump prevails.
“I feel like we have these conversations every four years where I’m consoling half of the client base,” said Justin Samples, an Ameriprise private wealth adviser and CEO of Fulcrum Wealth Management Group.
Investors fear a parade of horribles in the election’s wake. Some of the potential fallout seemingly hinges on which candidate prevails, while other scenarios could unfold no matter the winner.
The Betterment survey ranked the topmost fears:
◾ 47% of investors fear inflation will remain high after the election.
◾ 44% fear a future tax increase.
◾ 40% fear a coming recession.
◾ 31% fear a stock market crash.
In a typical election year, advisers say, investor angst focuses mostly on how either candidate would handle the economy.
This year, those differences are stark. Trump has said he would expand his 2017 tax cuts, curb illegal immigration and roll back many of Biden’s initiatives. Biden has pledged to raise taxes only for the very wealthy and to pursue a wish list of social programs, including affordable child care and student loan relief.
The 2024 election brings an extra layer of uncertainty
The 2024 election brings another layer of uncertainty around a more basic question: Will the president-elect be fit to serve?
Biden’s debate performance prompted some calls for him to step down. Trump, meanwhile, awaits sentencing in a New York “hush-money” case, following his conviction on 34 felony counts.
Come November, “we’re not even positive on who the candidates are going to be,” said Laura Mattia, a certified financial planner in Sarasota, Florida.
At such moments, investment advisers say their job is to preach calm. Whoever wins, experts say, investors should resist the urge to act on impulse or emotion.
“I think of our jobs really as finding clarity in the noise,” Samples said.
Here are some tips for coping with electoral angst:
Don’t fear an election-year downturn
Getting back to that Janus Henderson report: History suggests that the stock market thrives in an average election year. And the market is up so far in 2024.
“History tells us that it does not matter who’s in office,” Mattia said.
A bear market can be your friend
A down market is bad for those who must sell when prices are low. For long-term investors, however, a temporary downturn can bring opportunity. Share prices are cheaper, which means you can buy them at a discount.
“When we are in the accumulation phase of our life, bear markets are our friends,” Valega said.
More:Comparing Trump’s and Biden’s economic plans, from immigration to taxes
Don’t invest in emotion
Advisers worry about investors making financial decisions based on partisan emotions in an election year.
In the 2024 campaign, each candidate warns that the other will ruin the country. It’s no wonder, then, that some investors fear their portfolio is doomed.
Mattia says investors should adopt an “all-weather strategy,” making long-term investment decisions that will serve them well no matter who wins.
Focus on policy, not politics
Biden and Trump have very different platforms on income tax, energy, federal regulation and the environment.
Investors may want to change their strategies in those sectors, or revisit their income-tax exposure, Samples said, depending on how things come out in November.
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