Widely followed investor survey shows growth expectations at a record low
A widely followed investor survey is showing growth expectations are at a record low. A total of 82% of respondents in Bank of America Securities’ latest global fund manager survey said they expect the global economy will weaken — a 30-year high. The reaction comes as investors try to navigate the chaotic rollout of President Donald Trump ‘s trade policy, which has also thrown the stock market into a tailspin. In fact, 42% of fund managers polled said a recession is likely, which is the fourth highest level of the last 20 years, Bank of America said. Inflation expectations are at their highest going back to June 2021. The survey follows a surge in volatility in the stock market, with Wall Street’s fear gauge spiking above 50 at one point last week as investors responded to the minute-to-minute tariff changes that have unfolded since the April 2 announcement. .VIX YTD mountain VIX That volatility is unlikely to end anytime soon, the firm said. A record number of global investors are planning to lower their exposure to U.S. equities as confidence in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative dwindles. Already, the firm said, U.S. stock allocation posted its largest two-month drop ever. The firm expects April asset price lows to hold over the near term, unless there is a big easing in tariffs, sizable interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, or continued resilience in the economic data. Within stocks, investors are more underweight cyclicals compared with defensive stocks. They’ve cut tech, which is the most underweight going back to November 2022, as well as industrials, banks and consumer discretionary. They’re adding most to utilities going back to December 2008. Instead, fund managers are allocating toward gold, which is the No. 1 crowded trade, according to Bank of America. There’s also been a record increase in bonds. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
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